I have presented one of my recent system dynamics modelling efforts about transport mode evolution in NSW (New South Wales, Australia) at the fifth Bridging Transportation Researchers (BTR) conference. The abstract and the recording of my presentation could be found below. More information about the conference could be found here: https://bridgingtransport.org
Simulating Transport Mode Evolution: A System Dynamic Analysis of Future Trends and Policy Implications in NSW
Abstract
This paper examines the use of system dynamics modelling to design effective policies for the urban transport system in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, which can help achieve emission reduction and sustainability targets.
The study focuses on the uncontrollable growth of personal car use in NSW, which has led to increased energy consumption and air pollution. The system dynamics model considers the dynamics of urban transport mode choice through vehicle relative utility and identifies key factors affecting car utility, including GDP per capita, congestion, toll and fuel costs, and historical popularity.
The simulation results suggest that, given the current set of policies, personal cars will remain the dominant mode of transport in NSW. However, increasing fuel prices by 30%, compared to the base run, can reduce the relative personal car utility and stabilise the growth of kilometres travelled for personal cars. The study underscores the need for an integrated policy package that covers both supply and demand sides of the transport system to achieve sustainability goals.
Keywords
Transport Policy, Public Transport, Mode Choice, System Dynamics
Presentation recording
Access to my PublicationsHERE
P.S. I benefited from AI technology to write this blog and enhance the quality of the content.
P.S. Photo by Marc Kleen on Unsplash